I want to add my voice to the multiplicity of calls to former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, to be a Statesman. I am not sure what the motivation for his interest in the presidency is, knowing that a Northerner completed an 8-year term before it was rotated to the south. Whatever it is, I seriously appeal that he heeds the voice of reason, for equity and fairness.
During interviews granted by the 3 other top contending candidates, i.e. Donald Duke, Adewole Adebayo and Peter Obi, they were unanimous in their conviction, that only a coalition of the opposition parties can garner enough force against president Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 election. A fragmented opposition substantially enhances the chances for Tinubu’s re-election. Anything short of a coalition exposes the contest to a scenario where the electoral Commission, under Prof. Amupitan reproduces an edited version of the 2023 election results, which he could then rationalize by stating that the 2027 results indicate the electorates continue to maintain their candidates’ preferences as they did in 2023.
If Alhaji Atiku would take the path of honor and put his weight behind a Peter Obi’s candidature, the election results sharing ratio immediately becomes something like this: 8.7 million votes of Tinubu against the aggregation of 6.9m (Atiku), 6.1m (Peter Obi), 1.5m (Kwankwaso), which gives a total of 14.5M.
This is without even considering the tally of numbers from Donald Duke, Adewole Adebayo, Rotimi Amechi and Seyi Makinde. That would be one incontrovertible and assured way to win a clear-cut victory against the incumbent. It is one way to not resort to judicial intervention, which, as we should expect would have a predetermined outcome. The winning margin should be so explicitly clear-cut that any chances of a manipulation is erased. A splintered opposition votes would create vulnerabilities; grey areas for the already questionable umpire and their judicial accomplice to exploit for the benefit of their principal. A coalition is the APC’s greatest nightmare.
Alhaji Atiku should know that cognitive decline, which inevitably fogs reasoning faculty sets in at certain point in our lives. It is normal part of ageing to which we are all susceptible. It has been shown with many leaders over 80 years. Mohammadu Buhari exhibited it. It is evident in Bola Tinubu, despite all pretenses to the contrary. We see it in Donald Trump. It was glaring with Joe Biden and showing all over Paul Biya of Cameroun. It is therefore in Alhaji Atiku’s best interest to remain a dignified statesman, and not risk becoming an object of ridicule, all in bid to satisfy some life-long ambition.
At 79 years, he is 14 years older than the oldest of the other top contenders (Prince Adewole Adebayo is 54, Rotimi Amaechi is 61, Donald Duke is 64, Peter Obi is 65, Seyi Makinde is 58). Nigeria’s overall median population age is approximately 17.9 to 18.1 years old. Over 60% of the total population fall under the age of 25 to 30. There is no gainsaying the fact that the country is witnessing an unprecedented level of moral and social decadence among the youth: Advanced Fee fraud, Prostitution (disingenuously code-named Hook-Up), Drug trafficking/consumption and cultism, all of which portend a bleak future for the upcoming generations. An 80-year-old president would hardly possess the mental alertness or physical fitness required to respond to the realities of this disturbing moment and stem the tide.
Former Vice President Atiku’s insistence to contest has had people wondering if there exist a secret pact between him and Tinubu; an agreement under which Atiku should help fragment and destabilize the ranks of the opposition, especially Peter Obi, for the benefit of Tinubu.
When you realize that Atiku has, in the past been quoted to have made statements such as “..Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and I came a long way from the SDP, PDM and all of that”; which was the reason for why he decided to leave Lagos for Tinubu when PDP took over all of the Southwest states…. you start to ponder if there is veracity to that suspicion.
Is the calculation such that, by Atiku splitting the votes that should have accrued to Peter Obi, he clears the path for Tinubu’s re-election in 2027? Is it part of the agenda, that when the rotation reverts back to the North, Atiku would then either get the ticket or assign it to a trusted proxy, who is then guaranteed the Southwest support?
While this may remain within the realms of a conspiracy, we must all be baffled as to the justification for him repeatedly throwing his ‘hat in the ring’, first in 2023, during which he succeeded in scuttling the chances of Peter Obi, and again for the forthcoming 2027 election; this, despite knowing, and perhaps, even being one of the architects of the “gentleman agreement” of a power rotation between North and South.
Alhaji Atiku would do well to realize that he may be unwittingly reinforcing the belief and validating the assertion that a part of the country, a certain ethnic group exhibits a ‘born to rule’ attitude, even an unwholesome display of egocentric entitlement.
The Igbos have supported the presidential aspirations of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in his previous attempts at the presidency more than once in the past. It would not be out of place to reciprocate the gesture. Besides, there comes a time when it is more honorable to be a Kingmaker than aiming for the crown itself. He should learn from Tinubu’s pitfalls, heed voices of reason, so as not to tread the same mine-laced, treacherous path of “Emilokan”, that has become Tinubu’s Achilles heel.
Maybe it was a good thing that Tinubu ‘wriggled’ himself into the presidency in 2023, otherwise, his supporters would have been saying ‘if only he had the chance to rule Nigeria, even if for only one term of 4 years, he would have totally transformed Nigeria, as he did in Lagos’’. We have all seen the ‘national transformation’.
Even Buhari’s cult-like supporters would have been telling us how he would have turned Nigeria into an eldorado if he had been allowed to come back to rule; that he would have sanitized Nigeria like he and Tunde Idiagbon did between 1983 – 1985.
The last 12 years basically demystified these 2 and exposed their ‘nakedness’.
Alhaji Atiku would most certainly, not get the southern votes. I don’t even hear him feature in any conversation of the people when they discuss preferred candidates in the 2027 election. Blunt as this may come across, it is best to properly situate the current sentiment on the streets in the south to him. No right-thinking person from the South (or the Middle Belt for that matter), would give their votes to Atiku or the north, with just four years into an eight-year expected tenure of a Southern presidency. Not even after what the south and the middle belt have had to endure from marauders that they consider Atiku’s kinsmen, over the last 12 years. I am not sure what members of his inner caucus, those who are from the south among them (Dele Momodu, Dino Melaye, Rotimi Amechi etc.); I am not sure what feedback they are providing to him. Put more succinctly: ‘In the Nigeria of today, no southerner would vote to see power return back to the north, with the south having served only 4 of an 8-year 2 eligible terms. If his guys are telling him anything to the contrary, let Waziri Adamawa watch the weight of his wallet.
By all standards and within the context of Nigeria, African, or perhaps even globally, Alhaji Atiku has had an accomplished, unblemished and distinguished professional and political career, with citation appropriately describing him as ‘illustrious’. He should look back and consider the depth from which he has had to rise. I am sure he could never have imagined the height to which the abundance of grace has brought him. He should not blow it. As Chinua Achebe famously said in his book: ‘Things Fall Apart’: “Those whose palm-kernels were cracked for them by a benevolent spirit should not forget to be humble.” He would do well to spend the remainder of his days dotting over his grandchildren and as a polygamous man blessed with many children, generally putting his house in order “as the sun sets”.
Against all wise counsels, If Alhaji Atiku Abubakar insist on contesting the forthcoming 2027 presidential election, let it be known that he would have greatly increased the chances of a Tinubu victory. The north, and indeed all of the long-suffering people of Nigeria under the APC misrule should look no farther than the obstinacy of Alhaji Atiku. He should then take the blame for allowing the afflictions of Nigerians to ‘arise a second time’. Mr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former political Adviser to President Tinubu and now the Chairman of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) recently said on his interview with Symfoni TV that “The North will be finished if Tinubu wins in 2027”. That statement should not be taken figuratively.
In closing, after the 2027 election which terminates in 2031, the next election cycle when the south is expected to feed candidates would be 2039.
If for reasons of any past transgressions, the Igbos are deemed not qualified to aspire to the leadership of the country, why not just let them go; for it would appear that the north – south power sharing rotation has infact, become a euphemism for North-West and South-West power sharing arrangement.
Peter Omonua
