Sometimes people don’t want to hear the truth because they don’t want their illusions destroyed– Friedrich Nietzsche.
Since 2015, Nigeria has been governed by the All Progressives Congress (APC), the second ruling party since the return to the democratic system in 1999 after decades of military rule. However, the trajectory of its electoral support tells a story of steady attrition rather than enduring strength. The party’s national appeal shrank significantly even as it clung on to power in the 2023 presidential elections. Far from building a solid foundation, the party’s incumbency advantages, which many analysts assume will be pivotal to retaining its power, may falter on Election Day. If anything was more than evident in the 2023 election, it is the fact that structure is just one of the many variables shaping voters’ choices. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s (LP’s) candidate, won over 6.1 million votes and 11 states plus the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) without the control of any state, no legislators or councillors. This surprising outcome, which the former Governor of Ekiti State called “The Obi Hurricane”, raises the question of “QUESTIONABLE STRUCTURES”, what Obi himself described as the “Structure of Criminality”. In the face of biting economic hardship, this is an empirical reason to doubt the possibility of another APC victory in 2027 based solely on political structures. President Bola Tinubu can have control over 30 states through the state governors but the numbers from 2019 to 2023 expose a party in decline, and current realities suggest this trend could accelerate.
The Clear Pattern of Declining Votes
The result of the 2015 presidential election shows that the APC’s Muhammadu Buhari got roughly 15.42 million votes. In 2019, he captured approximately 15.19 million votes. These represented around 56% and 54% of valid votes, respectively. In the 2023 presidential election, Bola Tinubu got about 8.8 million votes, which was a sharp decline of roughly 6.4 million votes from APC’s 2019 share. His share of the total valid votes was roughly 37%. This was not a minor fluctuation; it occurred despite APC’s control of federal resources. Analysts claimed that the PDP and LP did not win because opposition votes were fragmented. Hence, they lost the election. The simple arithmetic used was adding the PDP’s 6.98 million votes and LP’s 6.1 million votes, which totals approximately 13 million votes, 2 million more than the 11.26 million votes Atiku and Obi got under the PDP in 2019. If analysts’ conclusion that opposition votes where fragmented, then the combined votes of Atiku and Obi should total 11.26 million, but this is clearly not the case. What is evident here is that voters realigned with candidates of their choice, and if at all any party lost voters, it was the APC, as the combined votes of Atiku and Obi clearly exceeded their 2019 share by about 2 million, while the APC lost over 6 million voters. Could Atiku have won if Obi were his Vice-Presidential Candidate? I am unsure for three reasons. First is the resentment the PDP would have faced in the South East because of not zoning the presidential ticket to it, which might have caused lower voter turnout there. Secondly, most supporters of Obi may not have turned out to vote, given their stance that they will not support him if he is the running mate. Thirdly, the organic support that Obi received may not have been automatically transferred to Atiku. Thus, both Tinubu and Atiku probably had similar chances of winning in that scenario.
This brief yet revealing analysis suggests that the analysis of voting results and patterns is far more complex than the simple formula of adding Atiku and Obi votes. Two questions that beg an answer are: (1) where did the 6.4 million votes APC lost in 2023 go, and (2) what is the guarantee that APC will not lose more voters in 2027 in the face of economic crisis and public outcry following heightened insecurity that has seen, for example, the kidnapping of school children and teachers in Oyo and elsewhere? Voter turnout plummeted to a historic low of around 27%, reflecting widespread disillusionment but was it only the APC voters that were disillusioned? If that were the case, we would have seen higher voter turnouts in PDP-controlled states. That was clearly not the case as voter turnout was low across the board. My view is that while some former APC supporters simply stayed home, many others shifted to alternatives like the LP under Peter Obi, especially in the North Central. Most of the PDP supporters in the South East and many in the South-South voted Obi. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) also took a chunk of the APC votes in Kano. Thus, the decline in APC votes was not a random event; it mirrored growing public frustration with governance failures under Buhari. Tinubu has now performed even worse than Buhari. Under Tinubu, the economy has tanked, skyrocketing prices and persistent inflation amid unemployment have created a cost-of-living crisis. Surveys and reports as of mid-2026 indicate disapproval ratings as high as 70%+, with citizens citing hunger, insecurity, and eroded purchasing power.
Why 2027 Could Be Worse for APC: Structural Advantages vs. Reality
If APC votes fell sharply from 2019 to 2023 amid already poor performance, why would the situation reverse in 2027? Economic indicators remain grim. Inflation has fluctuated, but consumer prices for food and essentials stay punishingly high. Unemployment and underemployment continue to alienate youth, the same demographic that powered the 2023 “Third Force” shift away from APC. Soaring costs of living translate directly into voter anger at the ballot box, or more likely, into abstention. Several dissatisfied electorates who once supported the APC are now eyeing opposition platforms. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) have emerged as potential destinations. Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have joined forces in the NDC as Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates. Even if these opposition remain fragmented as many analyses claim based on the simple arithmetic I have dismissed above, they offer protest outlets for voters tired of APC’s track record. A unified Obi/Kwankwaso opposition could further siphon votes from the APC’s traditional Northern bases. The APC primary result in 2026, where Tinubu purportedly received almost 11 million votes, merits deep doubt. Evidence of irregular counting, rapid jumps in tallies, and votes surpassing possible mobilisation amid national hardship undercut any claim of organic strength. Such figures appear more like internal incentives at work than a evidence of broader voter opinion. Inflated primaries rarely guarantee general election success when public discontent runs high.
APC defenders will point to incumbency: control of many states, federal patronage, and the ability to deploy resources. These factors matter in Nigeria’s clientelist politics. Yet they did not prevent the sharp 2023 decline. Low turnout historically favours organised incumbents but sustained poor performance risks even lower participation or backlash mobilisation against the ruling party. With economic reforms yet to deliver visible relief for ordinary citizens and protests springing up over failure in insecurity, by late 2026, APC’s “structure” may prove brittle against widespread electorates’ fatigue. Therefore, betting on an APC victory in 2027 requires ignoring the empirical evidence of declining support since 2019, the deepening economic pain, and the availability of protest alternatives in parties like ADC and NDC. Nigerian elections have often defied pure merit, but trends this clear, millions of votes lost, rising hardship, and eroding trust make a repeat performance far from assured. The party’s claim to have a solid grip on power increasingly looks like a holdover from past momentum rather than current legitimacy. Nigerians disillusioned by the last decade deserve better than another term justified by inertia.
Dr Cletus Famous Nwankwo is a Lecturer in Political Geography and Electoral Studies in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka
